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The New York Jets selected running back Breece Hall from Iowa State with the 36th overall pick in the NFL Draft. He will be a great addition to the Jets’ rushing attack and has a chance at splitting time with Michael Carter. There is a buzz around the rookie back from the Big 12, but could he be the first Jets rookie to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year since Joe Namath? Let’s look at an array of props around Hall offered by DraftKings and PointsBet sportsbooks.
Breece Hall’s odds this season
Breece Hall has a few different markets related to his rookie season performance. DraftKings is currently offering a total (over/under) on his regular season rushing yards and touchdowns. PointsBet has the longest odds for Hall to be the NFL’s rushing leader, the Offensive Player of the Year, and other sportsbooks like BetMGM and FanDuel are offering odds for Hall to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. A summary of the various props surrounding Hall is listed below:
- Regular Season Rushing Yards: O750.5 (-115) / U750.5 (-115) DraftKings
- Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns: O4.5 (-135) / U4.5 (+100) DraftKings
- Regular Season Rushing Leader: +5000 PointsBet
- Offensive Rookie of the Year: +850 PointsBet
- Offensive Player of the Year: +15000 PointsBet
If Hall can be the first Jets’ running back to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, a $10 wager would return $85 in profit. If the Jets are able to dominate on the ground, and Hall finishes as the NFL’s rushing leader, a $10 wager would return $500. However, since 2000, only Ezekiel Elliot and Kareem Hunt have led the NFL in rushing as a rookie.
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Breece Hall regular season rushing yards total over/under prediction: Over 750.5 yards (-115)
Jets fans were a little surprised when they saw their team draft a running back in the second round after New York had selected Michael Carter in the fourth round last year. However, Hall brings a different dimension to the Jets’ rushing attack as he was a first-team AP All-American and two-time Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year at Iowa State. He ran for 3,941 yards and 50 rushing touchdowns in his three collegiate seasons and set an FBS record with 24 straight games with a rushing touchdown. So, how much of an impact can the rookie back have in his rookie season?
Jets rookies have not had a significant impact in their first season in New York, and Joe Namath is the only Jets player to ever win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Although it is unlikely that Hall will win that award, his rushing total is in range. In the last five seasons, 18 different rookie running backs have rushed for over 750 yards in a season. At Iowa State, he averaged 5.5 yards per attempt and 239.3 carries per season and never missed a game due to injury. It will not be a question of Hall’s ability, but will he get enough touches to reach 750 yards?
Only four Jets rookies have more than 150 attempts in a season, and only two rookies have rushed for more than 750 yards in Jets history. However, we believe that Hall can be an addition to both of those lists. Last season, Michael Carter received 147 rushing attempts in 14 games, Tevin Coleman had 84 attempts in 11 games, and Ty Johnson had 61 carries. That is 292 total carries, and it is reasonable to think that Hall will take up about 60% or around 175 carries next season.
If Hall can get 175 attempts, he will need to average just under 4.3 yards per rushing attempt to go over the total, completed by 20 different rookie running backs over the last five seasons. 15 of the 20 rookies that averaged at least 4.3 yards per attempt also finished with more than 750 rushing yards, and Hall has the ability to join this group at the end of his rookie season. We predict that Breece Hall will have over 750.5 rushing yards in 2022.
Breece Hall regular season touchdowns total over/under prediction: Over 4.5 (-135)
In addition to Hall’s total rushing yards, DraftKings has set a total of 4.5 regular season rushing touchdowns. After diving into Hall’s rushing stats, it seems like a no-brainer to go over here as he finished with 21 and 20 touchdowns in his last two seasons at Iowa State. However, only five Jets’ running backs have ever rushed for five or more touchdowns in their rookie season, and Tony Paige was the last to do it in 1984. But Hall may bring a new level at the running back position that the Jets have not seen.
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Since 2000, the Jets have drafted just two running backs in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft (LaMont Jordan in 2001 and Shonn Greene in 2009). Neither RB was fed the ball from the start of the season, but it is hard to believe that the Jets would have drafted the best rusher in this year’s draft if they didn’t have immediate plans for the rookie. Even if Hall is not getting the majority of the workload to start, we see him as the Jets’ best goal line back and he should get into the end zone five times this season. We predict that Breece Hall will have over 4.5 rushing touchdowns this season.
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