Find Value on Distance Prop (Saturday, June 11) -

Find Value on Distance Prop (Saturday, June 11)

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Ramazan Emeev Odds

Maddalena Odds
Emeev Odds
2.5 (-225 / +160)
Singapore Indoor Stadium
Approx. 10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday night and via BetMGM.

Two rising Welterweights, Jack Della Maddalena and Ramazan Emeev, will open the Pay-Per-View portion of Saturday’s UFC 275 card in a matchup of clashing styles.

Della Maddalena, who fought on Dana White’s Contender Series, has just one UFC fight under his belt but made quick work of his opponent, Pete Rodriguez with a first-round knockout. Emeev is coming off a split-decision loss and each of his seven UFC fights have gone to the judges’ scorecards.

Will this fight play out the same way? Below I preview the main card opener, including my betting pick in the matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Maddalena Emeev
Record 11-2 20-5
Avg. Fight Time 9:00 15:00
Height 5’11” 5’10”
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 73″ 76″
Stance Switch Southpaw
Date of birth 9/10/1996 5/23/1987
Sig Strikes Per Min 8.40 2.52
SS Accuracy 49% 45%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.95 2.02
SS Defense 64% 66%
Take Down Avg. 0.0 2.29
TD Acc 0% 29%
TD Def 75% 66%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.6

This is exactly the type of striker vs. grappler matchup that could swing on the scorecards depending on who is judging the fight.

Emeev is a good wrestler who excels at getting his opponents down to the mat (2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, 29% accuracy). However, he doesn’t have tremendous top pressure and often needs to grind on his opponents to win rounds.

Moreover, Emeev doesn’t inflict much damage once he gets those takedowns, which has led to a pair of split decisions in his two most recent fights, as judges have prioritized damage over control time (which is the correct application of the scoring criteria).

Maddalena (“JDM”) is a high-volume striker who has shown impressive boxing in his relatively limited MMA career. While he showed capable grappling chops in his contender series win over Ange Loosa, JDM’s grappling is mostly untested at the highest level of MMA; Emeev represents a significant step up in competition relative to his prior opponents.

Even if Emeev can get JDM down to the mat, the Aussie can still swing the rounds back in his favor in short bursts of action on the feet by inflicting damage at high volume.

JDM sets up his strikes well and knows when to take power off or add more onto his punches to change the tempo of the exchanges.

Maddalena vs. Emeev Pick

Both fighters offer excellent cardio and this could be a back-and-forth three-round affair where Emeev scores more takedowns and control time while JDM lands more strikes in every round; scorecards could be all over the place.

Moreover, while JDM has a high number of finishes on his record, he’s bound to fight to more decisions at the UFC level since his power is based more upon attritional damage than sitting down on individual punches.

I don’t project value on either side of the moneyline and only show slight value on JDM’s decision prop (projected +170, listed +175).

That said, I project this fight to go to a decision 66% of the time (-192 implied), and I played the distance prop at -164 at FanDuel. I would bet that up to -175 in a fight with split decision written all over it.

The Pick: Fight goes to Decision (-162, 0.5u)

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