NFL Schedule Analysis: Fantasy Football Risers - bdsthanhhoavn.com

NFL Schedule Analysis: Fantasy Football Risers

david montgomery fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

As fantasy football managers and DFS players it is easy to get caught up in all the noise that is out there.  But looking at the season quantitatively and logically helps too.  Seeing what teams and what players have the best chance to succeed with a favorable early schedule, makes a little sense too.

What we have are numbers from last season combined with expectations for this season. But teams have changed both for the better and the worse, but honestly how big of a change will happen in the first seven games? We just don’t know, so as fantasy managers and DFS players we use the stats that we have in order to best prepare our preseason rankings.

The consensus is the New York Giants (and really any team in the NFC East) have the easiest schedule while the Kansas City Chiefs have the hardest.  But what team has the favorable early schedules that can help get your fantasy team off to a fast start before the byes wreak havoc?

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Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles have a tasty favorable early schedule, starting with Detroit in Week 1.

TEAMS RUSHING TD/GAME ALLOWED

& Rank

PASSING TD/GAME ALLOWED

& Rank

AVERAGE TOTAL POINTS/GAME ALLOWED

& Rank

@Detroit Lions 1.1 (t27th) 1.8 (27th) 27.5 (31st)
vs Minnesota Vikings 1.7 (21st) 0.9 (T16) 25.1 (24th)
@ Washington 0.8 (T12th) 2.0 (32nd) 25.5 (25th)
vs Jacksonville Jaguars 1.3 (T29th) 1.4(T9th) 26.9 (28th)
@ Arizona Cardinals 0.6 (T3rd) 1.8 (26th) 22.2 (16th)
vs Dallas Cowboys 0.8 (T14th) 1.3 (T5th) 21.2 (8th)
vs Pittsburgh Steelers 0.9 (21st) 1.7 (19th) 24.4 (22nd)

 

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts will have a new quarterback combined with last year’s rushing champion and number one fantasy draft choice Jonathan Taylor. Playing in the AFC South has its advantages.

TEAMS RUSHING TD/GAME ALLOWED

& Rank

PASSING TD/GAME ALLOWED

& Rank

AVERAGE TOTAL POINTS/GAME ALLOWED

& Rank

@ Houston Texans 1.5 (31st) 1.4 (T14th) 26.6 (27th)
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 1.3 (T29th) 1.4 (T9th) 26.9 (28th)
vs Kansas City Chiefs 0.8 (11) 1.8 (T25th) 22.4 (17th)
vs Tennessee Titans 0.8 (T14) by metrics 1.3 (T5th) 20.7 (6th)
@ Denver Broncos 0.5 (1st) 1.3 (4th) by metrics 18.9 (2nd)
vs Jacksonville Jaguars 1.3 (T29th) 1.3 (T5th) 26.9 (28th)
vs Indianapolis Colts 0.8 (T14th) 1.3 (T5th) 20.7 (6th)

 

New York Giants

TEAMS RUSHING TD/GAME ALLOWED &Rank PASSING TD/GAME ALLOWED

& Rank

TOTAL PPG ALLOWED

& Rank

@ Tennessee Titans 0.8 (T14th) 1.3 (T5th) 20.7 (6th)
vs Carolina Panthers 0.9 (T18th) 1.5 (13th) 23.8 (20th)
vs Dallas Cowboys 0.8 (T14th) 1.3 (T5th) 21.2 (8th)
vs Chicago Bears 0.8 (T12th) 1.8 (27th) 23.9 (21st)
vs Baltimore Ravens 0.8 (T9th) 1.8 (27th) 23.1 (18th)
@Jacksonville Jaguars 1.3 (T29th) 1.4 (9th) 26.9 (28th)
@Seattle Seahawks 0.9 (T18th) 1.4 (T9th) 21.5 (12th)

 

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears have a new head coach and have lost wide receiver Allen Robinson. The first two weeks are challenging but it softens up considerably afterward.

TEAMS RUSHING TD/GAME ALLOWED & RANK PASSING TD/GAME ALLOWED & RANK TOTAL POINTS/GAME ALLOWED & RANK
vs San Fran 49ers 1.0 (22nd) 1.4 (8th) 20.6 (5th)
@Green Bay Packers 0.7 (7th) 1.8 (T27th) 21.3 (10th)
vs Houston Texans 1.5 (31st) 1.6 (T14th) 26.6 (27th)
@ New York Giants 0.9 (T16th) 1.6 (T14th) 24.5 (23rd)
@ Minnesota Vikings 0.9 (T16th) 1.7 (T21st) 25.1 (24th)
vs Washington 0.8 (T12th) 2.0 (32nd) 25.5 (25th)
@ New England Patriots 0.6 (T3rd) 1.4 (11th) 19.4 (3rd)

 

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions will still have Jared Goff under center. Their wide receiver room is improved but still in doubt as rookie Jameson Williams has lingering ACL issues and D.J. Chark Jr. must prove himself on a new team.

TEAMS RUSHING TD ALLOWED/GAME &RANK PASSING TD ALLOWED/GAME &RANK AVERAGE TOTAL POINTS ALLOWED/GAME &RANK
vs Philadelphia Eagles 1.1 (26th) 1.7 (T19th) 23.1 (19th)
vs Washington 0.8 (12th) 2.0 (32nd) 25.5 (25th)
@ Minnesota Vikings 0.9 (T16th) 1.7 (T21st) 25.1 (24th)
vs Seattle Seahawks 0.9 (T16th) 1.4 (T9th) 21.5 (12th)
@ New England Patriots 0.6 (T3rd) 1.4 (11th) by metrics 19.4 (3rd)
@ Dallas Cowboys 0.8 (T14th) 1.8 (T27th) 21.2 (8th)
vs Miami Dolphins 0.9 (T18th) 1.4 (7th) 21.9 (15th)

 

Washington Commanders

Carson Wentz is under center for Washington. He is the 25th selected quarterback on average, going in the 15th round. Washington has a top 10 easy schedule with the first six games being runner friendly for Antonio Gibson and now Brian Robinson Jr.

TEAMS RUSHING TD ALLOWED/GAMES & RANK PASSING TD ALLOWED/GAMES & RANK AVERAGE TOTAL POINTS ALLOWED/GAMES & RANK
vs Jacksonville Jaguars 1.3 (T29th) 1.4 (T9th) 26.9 (28th)
@ Detroit Lions 1.1 (27th) 1.8 (T27th) 27.5 (31st)
vs Philadelphia Eagles 1.1 (26th) 1.7 (T19th) 23.1 (19th)
@ Dallas Cowboys 0.8 (T14th) 1.3 (T5th) 21.2 (8th)
vs Tennessee Titans 0.8 (T14th) 1.3 (T5th) 20.7 (6th)
@ Chicago Bears 0.8 (T14th) 1.8 (T27th) 23.9 (21st)
vs Green Bay Packers 0.7 (7th) 1.7 (T23rd) 21.3 (10th)

 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Per BETMGM.com the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now +750 to win the Super Bowl and +350 to win the NFC.  The return of Tom Brady and having one of the predictive easiest schedules doesn’t hurt those odds.

TEAMS RUSHING TD ALLOWED/GAMES & RANK PASSING TD ALLOWED/GAMES & RANK AVERAGE TOTAL POINTS ALLOWED/GAMES & RANK
@ Dallas Cowboys 0.8 (T14th) 1.3 (T5th) 21.2 (8th)
@ New Orleans Saints 0.7 (T5th) 1.2 (2nd) 19.7 (4th)
vs Green Bay Packers 0.7 (T5th) 1.7 (23rd) 21.3 (10th)
vs Kansas City Chiefs 0.7 (T5th) 1.8 (T25th) 22.4 (17th)
vs Atlanta Falcons 1.1 (T27th) 1.8 (T27th) 27.0 (29th)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 0.9 (21st) 1.7 (T19th) 24.4 (22nd)
@ Carolina Panthers 0.9 (T18th) by metrics 1.5 (13th) 23.8 (21st)

 

Players with Easiest Strength of Schedule

If you are thinking about stacking players in addition to the teams with the easiest strength of schedule at the beginning of the season, here are players in each position that have the easiest strength of schedule.

QUARTERBACK= Daniel Jones, New York Giants

WIDE RECEIVERS= Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

RUNNING BACK= David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

TIGHT END= Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Always know the matchups.  If you are playing in fantasy leagues, always know the scoring rules. Numbers matter!

And of course, always good luck!

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