Where to Find Value on the Favorite (Saturday, June 11) - bdsthanhhoavn.com

Where to Find Value on the Favorite (Saturday, June 11)

SeungWoo Choi vs. Josh Culibao Odds, UFC 275 Pick & Prediction: Where to Find Value on the Favorite (Saturday, June 10) article feature image
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(Photo by Yong Teck Lim/Getty Images) Pictured: Seungwoo Choi.

SeungWoo Choi vs. Josh Culibao Odds

Choi Odds
-225
Culibao Odds
+180
Over/Under
2.5 (-140 / +100)
Venue
Singapore Indoor Stadium
Time
Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN 2
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

Saturday’s final prelim fight at UFC 275 features two Featherweights — SeungWoo Choi and Josh Culibao — looking to make a splash. Choi had a three-fight win streak snapped in his last fight after getting submitted by Alex Caceres. Meanwhile, Culibao is coming off a win in his last fight last year.

Where’s the value in Saturday’s featured prelim? I break down what number you should look for in the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Choi Culibao
Record 10-4 9-1-1
Avg. Fight Time 11:24 12:40
Height 6’0″ 5’10”
Weight (pounds) 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach (inches) 74″ 73″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 11/3/1992 5/24/1994
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.38 2.92
SS Accuracy 40% 43%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.91 3.05
SS Defense 43% 54%
Take Down Avg. 0.88 0.0
TD Acc 57% 0%
TD Def 66% 86%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.4

Choi has the edge in height and reach with an inch on Culibao in both areas. Choi also has the edge in striking numbers (+0.46 differential) and Culibao actually takes more damage — 3.05 strikes absorbed to 2.92 strikes landed. While I rate Choi as the superior fighter, this should be a close and competitive striking matchup where the margins in each round are very narrow.

Choi is at his best when his opponents oblige him in a striking matchup, where he makes the most out of his reach. He’s lost fights when opponents can grapple him, but Culibao is not up for the task. That said, Culibao carries reliable power and can undoubtedly swing the fight in his favor with a couple of big moments.

Choi vs. Culibao Pick

Ultimately, I expect Choi to secure a close three-round decision. Still, even though I project slight value on his moneyline now (projected -236, listed -225), I would wait for Choi’s moneyline to drop closer to -200 before jumping in.

Moreover, I don’t see any value on the totals or any winning method props for this fight, so it’s a pass unless Choi’s moneyline odds continue to drop.

For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

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